It says something about how bad things are in Burma that elections due later this year are a step away from democracy, not towards it. After almost 50 years of dictatorship the Generals currently ruling Burma have no intention of relinquishing power. After the embarrassment of elections in 1990, in which the National League for Democracy won 82 percent of the seats in Parliament, little is being left to chance. Human rights abuses are on the increase as the generals clamp down on all opposition in the run up to the ‘election’.

The number of political prisoners has doubled since the Monk led uprising in 2007. Each month more activists are detained, and many tortured. The harsh sentences of 20 years that activists used to get have been doubled and even tripled to 60 years, a strong warning to anyone considering opposing their rule. The treatment of political prisoners is much worse as well. Those with illnesses are routinely denied medical treatment, and many have been moved to remote prisons hundreds of miles from their families, making it hard for them to visit. Activists not in jail are constantly watched, and meetings are banned. Media censorship remains, and state media attacks on Aung San Suu Kyi have resumed. In August 2009 Aung San Suu Kyi herself was sentenced to 18 more months in detention, as clear a signal as can be that the generals are not interested in change.

In ethnic areas the military attacks against the Karen, Shan and Karenni escalated last year, while in other ethnic states such as Kachin State rape, murder and torture at the hands of the Burmese Army are common and go unpunished. Armed groups that have long been on ceasefire have been told to disarm and effectively become part of the Burmese Army. Many of these groups have refused. As a warning to those who refuse, the Burmese Army attacked an ethnic Kokang ceasefire group, forcing 37,000 refugees to flee into neighbouring China. (The Burma Campaign UK warned of an increase in conflict such as this in 2007 – see issue 13 of Burma Campaign News)

With Burma in the grip of human rights abuses as bad as has been seen for 20 years, these is no chance of these elections being free and fair. The Parliament will be packed with the generals’ approved candidates, willing to do their bidding. But many democracy activists from Burma say even talk about a free and fair election is misguided. They argue that the election could be the fairest in the world, but it would make little difference, as the new constitution (known as the Nargis Constitution as the generals went ahead with a rigged referendum on the constitution just days after Cyclone Nargis struck Burma, instead of providing aid to more than 2.5 million people effected), is specifically designed to maintain dictatorship.

The fact that 25 percent of seats in Parliament are reserved for the military is far from the worst provision in the constitution. ‘Law and order’ overrides what few rights are granted to citizens. All existing repressive laws will remain in place, meaning no freedom of speech, no freedom of assembly, no free media. This means people can still be jailed for writing a poem critical of the government, owning a mobile phone without government permission, or even having a copy of a Rambo IV DVD (set in Burma).

The military are outside the control of Parliament and the courts. They even have the ability to effectively veto legislation if they deem it necessary to do so on grounds of ‘security’. All key government posts require previous military experience, at a stroke excluding all women from government. Although the constitution says it bans discrimination against women, there are exceptions, such as in employment, where discrimination is ok for “positions suitable for men only”. What these positions are is not specified.

Forced (slave) labour is also legal in under the new constitution. The Generals also use the constitution grant themselves impunity for all past crimes.

For ethnic people of Burma the consequences of the new constitution are even more serious. They are granted no level of autonomy or self rule. Military appointed commanders will be put in charge. Ethnic people’s requests for a federal Burma have been rejected outright. There is no protection for their cultures or language. The slow but steady process of destroying ethnic cultures, banning teaching of their language, history, and discrimination in employment, will go on. Military attacks against civilians – described as war crimes by the United Nations - will be able to continue unabated.

Exact details of how the new government structure will operate in practice are not always detailed, but what seems most likely is that power will be concentrated in a new National Defence and Security Committee. This is above Parliament. Parliament is likely to be window dressing for the international community, designed to make it look like there has been change, in the hope that sanctions will be lifted. Sadly, some governments and observers are already falling for this lie.  They should know better, as what is happening is not new. In 1974 General Ne Win, who seized power in a military coup in 1962, used similar tactics. He brought in a new constitution which legalised his rule, and gave it a civilian front, through the Burma Socialist Programme Party, while he still remained as dictator.

While the new constitution will lead to some restructuring in the government, it is mainly an exercise in rebranding. What began as the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), taking power in 1988, and renamed itself the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in 1997, will from 2010 become the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC). There will still be no accountability to the people.

Some governments and observers have tried to argue that at least there is some change, that this is better than nothing, and could lead to real change. They argue that having a Parliament could lead to a gradual opening up of political space, and then genuine change. Such an approach accepts many more years of repression and abuses, which is unacceptable to the people of the country. It is, in any case, highly unlikely to happen. A new constitution and Parliament didn’t bring change under Ne Win, and change is even less likely to happen now. MPs, for example, are technically granted freedom of speech, but only as long as they do not break the law. As criticising the government or constitution is considered a crime under existing law, they are not able to do so. Even if they did speak out no record of what they say is allowed to be kept in Parliament, and there will be no free media to report it anyway. At the same time a 75 percent majority is required for any constitutional change. With 25 percent of the seats in parliament guaranteed to the military, and the rest stuffed with the generals’ cronies, any change will be impossible.

Burma’s generals must be delighted with the international community’s response to their fake elections and new constitution. All focus has been on free and fair elections, and amending the constitution. The game is being played on the generals’ playing field, where they set the rules. No significant pressure is being applied for them to abide by the multiple demands by the United Nations Security Council, United Nations Generals Assembly, European Union, USA and many others, for the generals to enter into genuine dialogue with the National League for Democracy, and genuine ethnic representatives (known in diplomatic jargon as tri-partite dialogue).  The National League for Democracy and genuine ethnic representatives have time and again called for such dialogue, but the generals refuse. So far the international community has failed to apply enough pressure to force them into negotiations. Now, unless we can generate enough pressure on the United Nations and governments, we face the danger of several lost years before the international community wakes up to the fact is has been fooled once again, and that elections due later this year are one giant sham.

This article originally appeared in the Burma Campaign UK magazine, “Burma Campaign News”.
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